Belarus is not Ukraine

This short phrase aptly characterizes the 
essence of the Belarus leaders' response to recent historic Ukrainian events. 

Ex-president Leonid Kuchma of Ukraine wrote a book with a very straightforward title "Ukraine is not Russia". Events at the end of 2004 proved the correctness of these words contained in the title; irrespective of the fact what the author of the book really meant. Today it is the Belarus authorities who declare their uniqueness and they are unlike their neighbor Ukraine (not Russia this time). 

A little about our neighborhood
Before analyzing the impact of the recent Ukrainian presidential elections on official circles in Belarus, one significant factor should be mentioned, without which it would be very difficult to comprehend the acuteness of the situation. Traditionally, Ukraine is of a bigger magnitude for Belarus than, say, Belarus for Ukraine. The cause of it may be the actual size of the country: of all other neighbors of Belarus, only Ukraine is larger, more populated and resourceful (except Russia). The population of Belarus is five times smaller than that of Ukraine, number of people in Belarus having relatives or friends in Ukraine are more than Ukrainians having the same connections in Belarus. The same is true of politics - Belarus political events were almost never so important in Ukraine as to be highlighted more than usual daily news items. 
Contrarily, events during the 2004 presidential elections in Ukraine were the most discussed topics in Belarus, both in the political circles and among the public. Ukrainian events received as much wide coverage in Belarus mass-media as the news of the activity of the Belarus President Lukashenka. Thanks to media coverage of live events, people as if took part in Ukrainian events. The effect of polarization could be observed in many families: one family member could have a liking for one candidate, while the other members - for another candidate. By the way, the recent referendum concerning constitutional amendment in Belarus, as a result of which Lukashenka can now be elected as many times as he wants, coupled with the parliamentary elections without choices de-facto, evoked lesser social response than events in neighboring Ukraine. That is because the Ukrainian political autumn of 2004, unlike the Belarus one, was a sensation by itself and produced real results for the people… 


Beware: double standard
From the very beginning it was clear that the Belarus leaders were not indifferent to the outcome of the presidential elections in Ukraine. However, during the elections they made no formal pronouncements about their preferences - thereby observing the rules of non-interference in internal affairs. That the Belarus leaders are interested in Yanukovych's victory was proved when the President of Belarus very undiplomatically congratulated him with victory, after the Russian President Putin had done the same, even before the official announcement of the results. Apart from this, interest in Yanukovych's victory was also revealed by a flood of biased publications in the official media: publications, devoid of any journalistic ethics and common decency, calling the mass uprising supporting Yushchenko "orange Sabbath"; the participants of the "maidan" were called "foreign mercenaries equipped for political struggle". The Ukrainian Embassy in Belarus, unfortunately, lacked bravery to draw attention to this "friendly" attitude of the Belarus official media to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens defending their freedom of choice in the streets. Through such media, which served as mouthpiece of official policy, the Belarus leaders' real intention hidden under the disguise of "non-interference in internal affairs" was revealed. As for the leaders, they were silent after having prematurely congratulated the "winner" who was afterwards charged in the court of law to have falsified the election results. 
But then unexpectedly, the re-run of the second round of the elections in Ukraine coincided with the day, when Lukashenka was delivering a speech on the occasion of the opening of a center for cardiac surgery for children. No matter how paradoxical it may seem, in his speech he mentioned that "there is no need to dramatize the situation caused by Yushchenko's rise to power"; and that, "there is no need to shout that a pro-Western politician has risen to power in that country", that is because "Ukraine has elected a pro-Ukrainian politician", with whom, incidentally, Belarus president "had the pleasure of cooperation in the past". It is not clear to whom these words were addressed to. Supposing they were meant for the loyal journalists who shouted too zealously about "the coup inspired by American secret services", then, logically, Lukashenka had to warn his ideologists-journalists in advance that he respects "pro-Ukrainian" Yushchenko so much. However, the sincerity of his respect is doubtful. Later Lukashenka said "When the elections began, I came to the conclusion it would be a complicated process, and I thought it may end like that". So, as we see, Alexander Grigorovich all the time hoped and sincerely wanted the opposition to win. He did it secretly though, and his administration - only due to banal misunderstanding, of course - ordered official mass media to stigmatize proponents of this very opposition, and commanded law enforcement bodies to prevent the observers of Belarus NGOs from attending the Ukrainian elections. 
One more proof of the Belarus leaders' hypocrisy is the fact that Nina Sheldysheva, the editor of the political department of the government controlled newspaper "Respublika", known for her mud-slinging and slander against the democratic fight of the Ukrainians, was recently given an award for "spiritual renewal" by him. The award consists of a $1000 "fee" and is awarded to anyone for outstanding personal contribution through a series of articles dedicated to the problems of internal and external policy of Belarus. 
In fact, Belarus leaders would have been satisfied with whatever aftermath the Ukrainian elections would have had. In case of Yanukovych's victory, Lukashenka was likely to have stated that Ukrainian people did not succumb to "orange blackmail" arranged by overseas politicians and showed original Slavic wisdom by making the only right choice in favor of relations with CIS brothers. A long forgotten dream of Lukashenka, the "union of three Slavic republics" - would have been revived - and would have been reckoned as one more feather on Lukashenka's cap in the field of foreign policy. But if things really took such a turn, Belarus would have difficulties in tackling its economical wars with brotherly Russia, which have become a regular phenomena already: if pro-Moscow Yanukovych became the president, Belarus could no more remain the only strategic ally of Russia and, therefore, could not afford an easy life with low cost energy resources. With a pro-EU and -NATO Yushchenko as the president, Lukashenka holds his trump card of being the most faithful ally of Russia. Given this, Belarus leaders can only be glad that Ukrainians have such a new president… 


The ball is on your court, Ukraine!
Even if a whole army of people from both Ukraine and Belarus become interested in intensifying contacts between the countries, relations between these states will develop as in the past decade, remaining declaratively friendly. It is clear that the states will continue trading and cooperating in the economic field, despite the opposite political preferences of their leaders. But as far as the other aspects of the complex system of bilateral relations are concerned, one can only be guessing here…, or even waiting for collisions. 
The first issue likely to cause tensions will concern those people from Belarus who took part in the revolution. It is known that numerous guests from Belarus stood on the Independence Square shoulder to shoulder with the Ukrainians; they were representatives of various NGOs, opposition political parties etc. After they returned home to Belarus, "native institutions" took care of some of them. Pavel Seviarinec', leader of the youth movement has spoken out about "mopping up operations", stating that if former participants of orange revolution would continue to be discriminated, the Belarus opposition will address Mr. Yushchenko. This, in turn, might create a diplomatic problem for the new Ukrainian government: on the one hand, due to his disposition Yushchenko will not refuse to help his former team-mates; on the other hand, if Ukraine openly supports Belarus opposition, it will be automatically considered to be in one camp with the already stigmatized EU and USA. Hopefully, actions of Belarus leaders will not lead to such circumstances, under which even Ukraine (always tolerant to Belarus political developments) will have to take part in protecting the rights of Belarus citizens in their native land.
It is unlikely that statement of one of the leading figures in Yushchenko's campaign (and now she is the prime minister), Y. Tymoshenko, will make relations between the countries warmer. Tymoshenko said she was ready to export the orange revolution to Belarus. According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, Sergiy Martynov, he will not allow any revolution to happen in his country. Since social situation is more or less stable in the republic (unlike that in Ukraine), the influence of the West is also substantially lower, and therefore there are no grounds for revolutions. This idea (that "Belarus is not Ukraine") came up when Lukashenka, during his speech from the Sviato-Duhovo cathedral, promised "There will be neither pink, nor orange, nor banana revolutions in this country". Time will show, of course, whether he is right or not. However, today we may agree with his words. It is impossible to import any revolution from outside: it must ripen within the hearts and souls of the citizens themselves. Until now these hearts and souls "filled" with zeal for revolution for the cause of human rights and justice are regularly hunted and are being systematically kept in isolation from the society. Just to ensure that Belarus, Heaven forbid, does not become Ukraine. 


P.S. During the swearing-in ceremony of the newly elected President of Ukraine Belarus was represented by two political levels. Unofficial level was represented by known in Belarus "heavyweights"- members of opposition: leader of the Belarus People's Front Vincuk Viachorka and leader of United Public Party Anatol' Liabed'ka. The official delegation was headed by the Speaker of the lower chamber of the National Assembly of Belarus Volodymyr Konopliov. While the latter was received by President V. Yushchenko, the opposition met with Yulia Tymoshenko. In this way, Ukraine perhaps, will be on friendly terms with "both Belarus" at the same time, which will hardly be liked by the leaders of Belarus. It is because the Ukrainian government will finally become serious principled arbiter of Belarus realities. 

- Victor Dniprovsky from Minsk