Hello From the Future!

A study “Global Ecological Perspectives - 3” presented widely to all world mass media, analyzes the current situation and changes during the past 30 year period and offers four forecast options (ranging from “development first” to “protecting the nature first”) for the coming 30 year-period. 

Emission of green house gases, leading to global climate change, will evidently increase. Rates of drought, heavy rainfall, floods, hurricanes and other types of natural calamities will also increase. During the 90's of the past century total number of people affected by such natural calamities rose up to 211 million people annually, while in the previous decades this indicator was significantly lower — 147 million people. Economic losses in 1999 alone constituted 100 billion USD.

The study shows that, until the year 2032, about 2.5% of the world's total population will be affected by hunger. And more than half of the earth's inhabitants will face serious problems of water supply. This problem will be especially acute in the western part of Asia. Already today, 1.1 billion people do not have access to safe drinking water. 

However, the most dramatic changes will be observed with regard to the living organisms on earth. Today they are facing the sixth wave of their mass extinction. The rapidity of extinction is several times higher than the process of natural evolution. The first wave of extinction known to us, was observed 450 million years ago, when 75% of the animals then inhabiting the earth disappeared. The last wave of extinction took place 65 million years ago, when all dinosaurs died. 
Unlike these events of the past, reasons for which were various changes of natural conditions, the current wave of mass extinction of the animal kingdom will be caused by the activities of one of its species — “homo sap³ens” (the rational human being). 
Every fourth type among all types of mammals known to us today will be extinct from the natural ecosystem in the coming 30 years. A similar fate awaits every eighth species of all birds. Number of plants on the verge of extinction is estimated to be 5.6 thousand. And this is but part of the picture, as situation with regard to only 4% of all the known types of flora has been studied. Innumerable number of insects, fungi, and other living organisms will go extinct in the coming 30 years, without being ever identified, known and studied by science. 
Among the fauna, which, by all probability, will be extinct from the wild nature in the coming 30 years are quite well known species — the Amur Tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) or the Siberian Tiger, leopard, gephard, rhinoceros, Asian elephant, gorilla, Chinese alligator and others. 
Area of earth covered by nature, and preserved as sanctuaries have increased from 3 million sq. km. in 1970 to 12 million sq. km. in 2000. The study shows that this does not allow further use of land for agricultural or industrial purposes. But these protected areas are not much effective against illegal felling of trees, hunting, cattle grazing and forest fires. 

Till the year 2032, 3% of the earth's surface will either be covered with asphalt and cement or will have constructions on it, 70% of the earth's surface will be controlled by industries, transportation infrastructures and remnants of mining activities. 
Presently, 2 billion agricultural land plots (more than the areas covered by the territories of US and Canada taken together) are degraded and eroded, and 15% of them have suffered serious degradation. The main reason for such land degradation has been water and air erosion as well as use of land as pastures and grazing grounds for cattle. 

Following more than a decade after the 1992 Rio summit on Environment and Development, and following the summit in 2002 in Johannesbourg, all indicators show a drastic deterioration of the situation. The problem lies in matching commitments with actions, words with actions. As Head of the UNEP, Klaus Topfer has said: “Today we have hundreds of declarations and agreements. We need the political will and new financial mechanisms to put these intentions into practice.”